Who is Ashton Jeanty, and why is he NOT a top 12 pick?
Jeanty is the Heisman candidate, Maxwell and Doak Walker award winning running back from Frisco, Texas (Lone Star High School), and the consensus RB1 and top 5 player of the 2025 class. He spent 3 years at Boise State racking up over 4500 rushing yards and 50 Touchdowns while almost breaking Barry Sanders single season rushing yards and rushing Touchdowns records (though back when Barry played, they didn’t count post-season stats along with regular season). Some great comps I’ve seen for Jeanty is LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Maurice Jones-Drew and DeAngelo Williams
At one time, the RB position was a position that was highly drafted in round 1, especially in the top 10. Since 2000, 51 running backs have been drafted in round 1, and 14 of those have come in the last 10 years. Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon, both from the 2015 class are no longer in the NFL. Zeke Elliot from the ‘16 class, got a second contract from Dallas, but was cut 2 seasons into his contract and has since become a backup. Leonard Fournette from the ‘17 class didn’t play in 2024 and only had 12 carries in 2023, his fifth year option was declined and was released by Jacksonville before his rookie contract was even up. Christian McCaffrey also from the ‘17 class has been one of the top backs in the NFL when healthy, he has played in 95 of a possible 144 games (that means he’s missed nearly 3 seasons worth of games).
Saquon Barkley from the ‘18 class is one of the best in the league still and had to leave NYG to get a ring in Philly, while Rashod Penny hasn’t been healthy since 2021 and didn’t play a single snap in 2024 and Sony Michel has been out of the league since 2022, both also from the ‘18 class. Josh Jacobs from the ‘19 class did not get a second contract from the Raiders and signed with Green Bay last season and is thriving. Clyde Edwards-Helaire from the ‘20 class hasn’t played meaningful snaps since 2021. Najee Harris & Travis Etienne both from the ‘21 class have not lived up to expectations, while Etienne’s 5th year option was picked up by Jacksonville, Najee’s was declined by the Steelers and is set to be a free agent this season. Then of course there is Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs from ‘23, who are both currently doing well. (None from ‘22 or ‘24 class.
With the draft picks of Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, along with new contracts for Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, the position has gained somewhat of a resurgence and now football fans believe that Ashton Jeanty is the next running back to be drafted in the top 12, I moved it to 12 because Cowboys fans want him, so I needed to move it from 10 to 12 for the reason (and I am a Cowboys fan by the way). Now before we get into why I don’t believe he will be a top 12 pick, this important information needs to be stated. Ashton Jeanty has accumulated 850 total usage (rushing & receiving) while in college.
Now that we know how much usage he’s had, let’s go back to those 51 running backs drafted in round 1 since 2000. Of those 51, only SEVEN have had 800+ total usage, and the last time it was done was Darren McFadden in 2007. Of those, only one ended up with a Hall of Fame career, that being the legendary, LaDainian Tomlinson. Aside from him, the other six had a total of eleven 1000 rushing yard seasons and 2 pro bowls.
Thomas Jones, picked 7th overall, had 5 of those, but didn’t do it until his sixth season on his 3rd team, in the NFL.
Cedric Benson, picked 4th overall, had 3 but didn’t do it until his fifth season on his 2nd team.
Darren McFadden, picked 4th overall, had 2, once for OAK/LV in year 3 and didn’t do it again until year 8 in Dallas.
DeAngelo Williams, picked 27th overall, also had 2, in years 3 and 4.
Ron Dayne, picked 11th overall, only played 7 seasons and reached 700 yards twice.
Chris Perry, picked 26th overall, played 4 seasons and totaled 606 yards.
Jones played 12 seasons, Benson played 8, McFadden played 10 and Williams 11, but none of them really lived up to the hype where they were drafted, Tomlinson obviously the major outlier here with eight 1000 yard seasons in a row (and that’s not even counting the receiving yards), before finally falling off a cliff. And that is why a major part of the problem with Jeanty is that, aside from 1 guy who was drafted in 2001, no other first round running back with high usage has ever really panned out to expectations for the team that drafted him.
With all this said, Jeanty WILL become the first running back since McFadden with 800+ total usage to be drafted in round one. However, his usage that put him in the spotlight and into the round one conversations is also hurting him. While he is currently a consensus top 5 player in this draft among the pro’s, his draft position has been a bit all over the place going as early as the Jets at 7 from Lance Zierlein of NFL.com to the Chargers at 22 by Matt Miller of ESPN, as well as the Cowboys at 12 by Jordan Reid of ESPN, Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy and Brendan Donahue of Sharpe Football, the Steelers at 21 by Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com and of course the Broncos at 20 by Mel Kiper Jr of ESPN, Dane Brugler of The Athletic, Field Yates of ESPN & Ryan McCrystal of Draft Ace/Sharpe Football.
Players like Breece Hall (801 total usage) and Jonathan Taylor (over 1,000 total usage) were running backs that were looked at as possible round 1 guys that eventually were drafted in round 2. Taylor’s over usage has led to multiple injuries since he has been in the NFL. To say these injuries are caused by the usage should obviously be questioned, as that is not backed up by any real information. But his over usage and constant injuries do make you ask the question if the two are related and could it be an example that teams see to and worry about.
The examples of Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs of recent years does not help the argument for Jeanty to be a top 5-15 pick just because they were. When we compare the total usages of both of these running backs to Jeanty, what we see is a staggering number. Bijan’s total usage of 599 in college plus his rookie season is 871 total usage, Bijan needed an extra season just to accrue 21 more touches than Jeanty’s college usage. Gibbs total usage in college of 487 combined with his rookie season is still 129 total touches below Jeanty’s college usage.
None of this means that he’s not going to be a good running back, or constantly injured, it just means that teams may not invest a high pick for a position that’s on the low end of the payment spectrum. For instance, Bijan was picked at 8 in 2023 and makes $5.4m per year while Gibbs at 12 makes $4.4m per year. With the cap raising every year, so does the price of the pick, meaning the #8 pick raised to $5.7 and #12 moved up to $4.65m per year in 2024, which means Jeanty will likely make $6m per year at #8 or almost $5m per year at #12, while Derrick Henry who just signed a deal with the Ravens in 2024 is worth $8m per year. Teams will understand that, that is a high investment that’s already close to the top paid players at that position.
Why does that matter? Because other positions on rookie contracts are far lower compared to where the top players are being paid. A rookie running back taken in the top 10 is already making close to what the top end is at his position, while a player from almost every other position will be on the lower end of the pay scale, and by almost I mean TE, which is the lowest paid position in the NFL that’s not special teams.
Understanding this information should help you get a little bit better of an idea about the reasons why Jeanty will be a first round pick, just not in the top 10, and in all likelihood, not in the top 15.
I have been a firm believer for a while that Jeanty will not be a top 12 pick, in my mock 1.0 that I did at The Huddle Report on 1/16, I had Jeanty at 22 to the Chargers. My 2.0 will be out after the combine.
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